Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Green Blog: Exploring the Mekong's Uncertain Future

Picture a river that has catfish the size of bears. With a giant freshwater stingray that could blanket a king-size bed and weighs as much as a buffalo.

Imagine a river that carries so much water during the annual flood that one of its major tributaries would hit this wall of water, stop, and then be pushed backwards, flowing upstream for several months each year into an enormous rainy-season lake that becomes such a factory of fish production that an entire country depends on it for their protein. ?When the great river?s flow finally ebbs, the people hold a celebration for what the flood had left behind: tons of fish and fresh sediment and nutrients for their rice fields.

That river, the Mekong, existed 1,000 years ago, when the first stones were laid for? Angkor Wat, the largest Hindu complex in the world. Angkor Wat lies just to the north of that floodplain lake, Tonle Sap, and its splendors include ?bas-reliefs depicting the bountiful fish harvests from the river and its floodplain.

But this picture isn?t just ancient history; the river still exists today. Last month, the tributary reversed its course and the Tonle Sap began to drain and the people of Phnom Penh held their three-day Bon Om Touk water festival, with boat races and fireworks, to celebrate the Mekong?s fish, which still provide nearly 80 percent of Cambodia?s protein.? Giant catfish will leave the lake and seek the 150-foot deep pools of the main-stem channel, joining freshwater dolphins in this dry-season refuge.

But will that river exist 20 years from now?

Starting next week, I plan to explore that river and its uncertain future.? I?ll take a 1,500-mile journey down the river river with my family.? Along the way, I?ll be sharing my experiences here on the Green blog.

The people of the Mekong face a series of difficult decisions.

Yes, the river supports the largest freshwater fish harvest in the world, providing the primary source of protein to more than 50 million people.? Only the Amazon, with a basin almost 10 times the Mekong?s size, has more fish species.

But the Mekong also contains immense hydropower potential ? and the dams that could capture that potential would almost certainly eliminate much of the river?s fish productivity and diversity.

Much of the sediment carried by the river will drop out in the slack water behind the dams? reservoirs, depriving the Mekong Delta of the silt and sand it needs to rebuild itself.? The loss of this sediment means that the delta, Southeast Asia?s most important region for rice production, will battle steadily rising seas with one arm tied behind its back.

Despite these impacts, hydropower is extremely tempting to the region. The lower Mekong basin is composed of poor countries whose topography holds most of the hydropower potential (primarily Laos, but also Cambodia) alongside one of Asia?s economic tigers, Thailand, with its growing demand for energy.? While the benefits of hydropower?s energy and revenue are often not distributed evenly, it is also true that many countries, including the United States, have made hydropower a cornerstone of their economic development.

Water, land, food, and power, all intertwined. There will be winners and losers, and they might be determined soon. What better time for me to take a closer look at the river, both as a freshwater scientist ? and as a father concerned about his children?s connection with nature.

My wife speaks Thai and Lao from her time in the Peace Corps, and we plan on negotiating with fishermen for downstream boat rentals and staying in riverside villages from northern Laos, where the first main-stem Mekong dam is now under construction, ?to the Tonle Sap lake in Cambodia.

As a river scientist and conservationist, my job is to help find solutions to these difficult challenges for river management.?? But the Mekong?s challenge is not just about fish and hydropower-produced electrons, it?s about the families and communities who live along the river.?

What do they really want and how do they feel about these choices? Does this question need to have a binary outcome ? electrons or fish ? or are there innovative solutions that would allow the river to produce significant new energy while still supporting a productive fishery and other values? I?ll discuss what recent research has to say about this in coming posts.

As a father, I recognize as many others do that it?s increasingly hard to raise kids with a connection to nature. While the hyper-connected present and future hold great promise, I have an unsettling sense that something might get lost along the way.? Another tug-of-war between electrons and fish, but played out at the scale of a family home, between the computer screen and the backyard creek.

Different scales, but similar choices and challenges.? Of course the future will be different from the past, but during that transition, what do we adopt, what do we let go of, and what do we cling to fiercely? How do we balance these values, the costs and benefits of these choices?

You can come too, virtually. Check back here for dispatches from the river.

Jeff Opperman is a senior freshwater scientist for The Nature Conservancy.

Source: http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/19/exploring-the-mekongs-uncertain-future/?partner=rss&emc=rss

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